This week, the silicon manganese market consolidation operation, the north continued to maintain full load production, production increased, the willingness to reduce production is low, Inner Mongolia restrictions on electricity and Ningxia heavy pollution weather Ⅲ emergency response events have no greater impact on production, Inner Mongolia profit margin is still sufficient, the southern operating rate continues to decline, cost inversion is serious, production is more difficult, the north and south operating rate continues to expand, Steel mills winter storage ended one after another, the market tends to calm, no large market changes, silicon manganese qualified block cash including tax from the northern mainstream price of 6050-6150 yuan/ton, Ningxia bottom price broke through 6000 yuan/ton below, the south around 6300-6350 yuan/ton. At the futures end, the futures plate at the beginning of the week was weak and down, and the silicon manganese plate rose slightly with the black system in the past two days, and the overall situation was relatively stable.
At the factory end, the country started 56.86%, an increase of 0.74% over the previous week; The average daily output is 30,227 tons, an increase of 222 tons. In Inner Mongolia, there are fluctuations in the start of the factory, and recently, the power restriction in Inner Mongolia has a large gap, and some manufacturers have load reduction production, but the overall output has a small impact. Ningxia has launched a level III emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Among them, the industrial source emission reduction measures require industrial enterprises to take measures such as reducing production load, stopping production, strengthening pollution control, and off-peak transportation of bulk materials in accordance with the requirements of “one plant and one policy”, and the production of silicon manganese has not been significantly affected. The operating rate of Guangxi region remains low, it is expected that the comprehensive electricity bill will remain high this year, and the production of individual small factories will be difficult, and a leading enterprise will continue to reduce and stop production. Guizhou operating rate is temporarily stable, according to the current market, after the holiday, individual manufacturers or will delay the resumption of production, some manufacturers said that it is expected to stop production for 3 months, lack of production power. In terms of cost and profit, the cost of Inner Mongolia is 6087, and the profit is 43 yuan/ton; Guangxi cost 7061, the loss of 711 yuan/ton or so, the north-south profit gap is still obvious.
Manganese mine end, this week, the Tianjin port manganese mine market is weak consolidation, manufacturers maintain the state of price pressure, procurement sentiment is general, the price fell slightly, South Africa semi-carbonic acid 32-32.3 yuan/ton, Gabon 35 yuan/ton, Australian block 36-36.3 yuan/ton. This week, Qinzhou port manganese mine trend is different, the factory needs to replenish the inventory, the price of Australian seed in 33.2-33.5 yuan/ton, semi-carbonated price of 33.5 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price of 33 yuan/ton.
At the steel plant end, a steel plant in South China in February priced silicon manganese 6550 yuan/ton, the quantity of 3,500 tons, acceptance including tax to the factory Mysteel survey 247 steel blast furnace operating rate 76.23%, an increase of 0.15% compared to last week, an increase of 0.26% compared to last year; The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 82.98%, which increased by 0.42% compared with last year and decreased by 0.12% compared with last year. The profit rate of steel mill was 26.41%, down 0.43% from the previous quarter, down 0.86% from the same period last year; The average daily output of molten iron was 2,219,100 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 18,300 tons year-on-year.
In summary, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China’s crude steel production in December 2023 was 67.444 million tons, down 14.9% year-on-year; From January to December, China’s crude steel production was 1019.081 million tons, flat year-on-year. Among them, the top two provinces in production are Hebei and Jiangsu. In the case of no increase in upstream production, alloy production capacity is still in a state of excess, and the new capacity plan in Inner Mongolia next year still exists, the supply and demand pattern of silicon manganese will face severe challenges, and it is expected that the short-term silicon manganese market will be weak.
