【 Trading Strategy 】
Black goods rising power is insufficient, the ferroalloy market is weak shock. In the futures market, the main 05 contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6,528 points, up 0.25%; The silicon manganese main 05 contract closed at 6154 points, down 0.23%.
The spot price of ferrosilicon continues to fall. After the electricity settlement at the end of the month, the number of enterprises that reduce production is expected to increase. Last week, the daily production of ferrosilicon has fallen, and the serious loss has led to a continued reduction in production. Under the background of falling costs and weak supply and demand, the ferrosilicon market may be difficult to get rid of the weak shock pattern in the short term.
In terms of manganese silicon spot market, the recent production reduction in Ningxia exceeded the energy control period last year. However, the current price decline is mainly due to the overall rebound of black goods. The southern Guangxi and Yunnan regions have also reduced production, but the supply side impact has not been obvious in the short term. High social inventories and weak downstream demand are the main reasons, but the market is still looking forward to April.
Investors in the unilateral operation, it is recommended to wait for the rebound high before considering short. Arbitrage and options remain wait-and-see.
【 Important Information 】
In January-February 2024, the national ferroalloy production was 5.67 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year.
In January 2024, China’s export volume of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% silicon was 36,823.044 tons, an increase of 55.74% from the previous month and a decrease of 30.8% year-on-year. The export volume of ferrosilicon containing less than 55% silicon was 2,287.1 tons, an increase of 14.74% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 6.75% year-on-year. In terms of imports, imports of ferrosilicon containing more than 55% silicon in January were 3642.276 tons, an increase of 69.96% from the previous month, mainly from North Korea and Russia.
Data from the National Energy Administration show that from January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 1,531.6 billion KWH, an increase of 11.0%. Among them, industrial power generation above designated scale was 1.487 billion KWH. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry increased by 11.1%, the secondary industry by 9.7%, the tertiary industry by 15.7%, and the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 10.5%.
