Steel prices fluctuated sharply today, but the overall market remained under pressure.
Peak season rebar demand picked up, but year-on-year is still low. With low production, inventories have fallen sharply. The hot coil inventory pressure is relatively large, the steel mill production space is limited, and the hot metal production remains low.
The economic recovery has been bumpy, with weak housing weighing on aggregate demand. PMI rose more than expected in March, and the manufacturing industry recovered to ease the downward pressure on demand for building materials, and the sustainability remains to be seen. Market expectations are pessimistic, focusing on macro sentiment and end-demand performance.
Iron ore prices fell and spot prices followed suit.
Global iron ore shipments are high, and domestic arrivals are strong. There are short-term supply pressures. On the demand side, terminal demand slowly recovered, steel mill profits turned positive, and hot metal production bottomed out.
On the whole, there is a marginal improvement expectation on the demand side of iron ore, but the oversupply situation is difficult to change. The lack of rebound drive on the disk is expected to be mainly volatile, focusing on the persistence of the recovery of terminal demand.
The coke disk surface falls back with the black system, and the rebound kinetic energy is insufficient.
Demand-side steelmaking profits continued to recover, but hot metal production remained low. The loss of the supply side coking plant widened, and the reduction of production reduced the cost of coal into the furnace. The coke market is still burdened by negative demand feedback and weak cost resonance.
Coking coal pan rebound blocked fall.
The demand side continues to be adversely affected by hot metal and coke pressure. At the supply end, domestic coal mines are under strict supervision of low production, and the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal is strong. Coking coal supply is relatively excess, the futures price is slightly discount, temporarily look at the shock consolidation.
The silicon manganese market is driven up by the material, but the momentum is weak.
The output of silicon and manganese was stable, and the output of hot metal was low and stable. The market inventory has increased. Chemical coke followed coke down, manganese ore quotation held steady. Price volatility increases in the short term, and it is recommended that spot holders consider hedging.
The ferrosilicon market is driven up by the material, but the momentum is insufficient.
The output of hot metal is low and stable, and the export demand is optimistic. The supply and demand margin improved, and the price of carbon fell. Iron silicon stocks decreased slightly. Pay attention to the removal rate of ferrosilicon, the short-term inventory pressure is large, it is recommended to rebound short.
Risk warning: hot metal recovery exceeds expectations, policy changes.
