【 Manganese silicon futures market 】 : Yesterday morning manganese silicon main 2409 contract open continued high rising trend, the current manganese silicon main has been harvested nine consecutive Yang, since April, by South32’s mine in Australia suspended operations, manganese silicon prices all the way up more than 30%, the end of the day continued to pull up quickly, as of the closing of 8376, closed up 1.18%, continued to hit a new high in the year; Market volume fell slightly, the day concerned about whether the price of manganese silicon is affected by risk control policies.
According to Yangtze River Nonferrous metal network, May 9 silicon manganese alloy (FeMn60Si17) quoted at 7650-7850 yuan/ton, compared with the previous working day no change; Silicon manganese alloy (FeMn60Si14) quote is 7050-7250 yuan/ton, compared with the previous working day no change; Silicon manganese alloy (FeMn60Si28) quote is 10050-10250 yuan/ton, compared with the previous working day no change. News, May 7, Zhengshang Exchange issued a notice that since May 10, 2024, the trading fee standard of manganese silicon futures 2406, 2407, 2408 and 2409 contracts and the trading fee standard of today’s position are adjusted to 6 yuan/lot. Previously, the trading fee of all contracts of manganese silicon futures was 3 yuan/lot, and the intra-day flat position fee was waived. At the cost end, South32 said in its quarterly report that it expects to resume terminal operations and export sales of manganese mines only in the first quarter of 2025. Last year, the import of manganese ore from Australia reached 5.24 million tons, accounting for 17% of the total import. Although GEMCO manganese ore accounts for a limited amount of total imports, its current recovery time is expected to be nearly a year, and the impact of the event cannot be dissipated in the short term, so the market bullish atmosphere is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate in Guangxi has increased, most of the discontinued manufacturers in Guilin have resumed production, but basically maintain a class of production, Guizhou is more stable, Yunnan is coming, manufacturers have resumed production, it is expected that the operating rate will reach about 90% in June. In Inner Mongolia, production fluctuated little this week, and some manufacturers said they would resume production in late May.
Operation suggestion: In terms of futures, pay attention to the early pressure range near the 8700-8900 mark of the manganese silicon 2409 contract, after the market has risen for more than a month, with the subsequent risk control measures of the exchange, the market’s warm bullish sentiment may gradually slow down. The early profit multiple can consider the near pressure for profit reduction, and pay attention to whether the follow-up can break through in the re-entry. Short-term continuous low multi-train of thought, do not over-chase high, short-term attention to support strength around 8300-8380.
In terms of spot, pay attention to whether the risk control policy of the subsequent exchange will continue to be introduced, pay attention to the resumption of factory work in late May, and whether the steel standard price will fall, and whether the factory warehouse can continue to go to the warehouse.
