Rebar: Expected short – term narrow finishing operation of the thread dial
Yesterday, the thread plate rose slightly, the closing price of the thread 2410 contract was 3686 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day, an increase of 0.66%, and the position was reduced by 7151 hands. Spot prices rose slightly, turnover rebounded, Tangshan area Qian ‘an square billet price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,470 yuan/ton, Hangzhou market thread price rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,610 yuan/ton, the national building materials trading volume of 163,800 tons. According to steel silver data, this week the national building materials inventory fell 4.49% to 6.9041 million tons, hot roll inventory fell 1.37% to 2.7314 million tons, building materials inventory decline has expanded. The Ministry of Finance issued the “Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and ultra-long-term special Treasury Bonds in 2024”, in which ultra-long-term special Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years are involved, and decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special Treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special Treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special Treasury bonds on June 14. Easing at the policy level has increased, which has formed a certain boost to market sentiment. It is expected that the short – term thread surface narrow finishing operation.
Iron ore: Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term
Iron ore futures main contract i2409 prices rose yesterday, closing at 888 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.7%, trading 390,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots. Port spot prices have risen, Rizhao Port PB powder prices rose 18 yuan/ton to 885 yuan/ton, super powder prices rose 15 yuan/ton to 730 yuan/ton. According to mysteel data, Australia shipped 18.176 million tons, a decrease of 2.385 million tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 6.279 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month. Global shipments and 45 port arrivals all declined. And yesterday was disturbed by news, according to foreign media reports, Rio Tinto said on Monday that an iron ore train in Western Australia iron ore business derailed, but no one was injured in the accident. On the demand side, the steel mill continued to resume production, and the output of molten iron increased to 2.345 million tons from the previous quarter, but there is uncertainty in the follow-up production space, depending on the demand for steel. The daily consumption and port clearance of imported ore increased from the previous quarter. At the inventory end, port inventory and steel mill inventory declined from the previous quarter. Under the interweaving of long and short, it is expected that the short-term iron ore price will maintain a high and volatile trend.
Coking coal: It is expected that the short-term domestic coking coal plate will run in a narrow range
Yesterday, the coking coal plate was weak and volatile, and the closing price of the closing day of the coking coal 2409 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, down 0.94%, and the position increased by 304 hands. In terms of spot, coking coal in the Luliang market is running in shock, with low sulfur main coke A≤12.5, S≤0.8, V≤24-26, G≥80 at a trading price of 1750 yuan/ton. Mongolia imported coking coal market temporarily stable operation, Ganqi Maudu port Mongolia 5# raw coal 1370, Mongolia 5# clean coal 1660. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi’s main producing areas have stopped production recently, and the overall supply of coking coal is still tight. In terms of demand, the coke game cycle is prolonged, market sentiment is gradually returning, some intermediate links such as coal washing are expected to weaken, affecting the market mentality slightly, and downstream receiving goods is cautious. It is expected that the domestic coking coal plate will run in a narrow range in the short term.
Coke: The coke market is expected to run in a narrow range in the short term
Yesterday, coke plate weak shock, closing day coke 2409 contract closing price of 2258 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, down 0.48%, the position reduced 206 hands. In terms of spot, the port coke spot market fluctuated weakly, and the spot price of quasi-primary coke at Rizhao Port fell 10 yuan/ton to 1970 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the profit of coke enterprises is still acceptable, the start of coke enterprises in the region has risen significantly, and the average daily production of coke has increased. On the demand side, the steel mill is at a high level, and the coke just needs to remain. Considering the rationality of profit and inventory, the steel mill maintains a cautious purchasing attitude toward coke, and the steel mill is gradually showing its willingness to control quantity and price. It is expected that the coke market or narrow finishing operation in the short term.
Manganese silicon: The price of manganese silicon is expected to remain volatile in the short term
On Monday, the main contract of manganese silicon rose 6.75% to 9,112 yuan/ton, the spot market price of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 6517 silicon manganese in Ningxia was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 50-200 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day. Strong cost support is the main factor affecting the price of manganese silicon, and it is difficult to change in the short term. Taking Tianjin Port Australian manganese ore: Mn44.5% price as an example, the increase has exceeded 70% since the beginning of April, and the increase has exceeded 10% after May Day, and the price of high-grade manganese ore in various ports continues to rise, the port manganese ore inventory is at a historical low in the same period, and the cost-driven story continues. In the absence of new disturbances, it is expected that the short-term price of manganese silicon will remain volatile and strong, but the current price is already at a historical high range, and it is necessary to be vigilant that the upward cost may put pressure on the recovery of downstream demand. Continue to pay attention to manganese mine quotes and South32 related announcements.
Ferrosilicon: Expected short-term shock operation mainly
On Monday, the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.87% to 7190 yuan/ton, and the spot summary price of 72 ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia region was 6800 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From the perspective of supply and demand, with the improvement of production profits on a sequential basis, the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises picked up on a sequential basis, the average daily production of ferrosilicon in the latest week has exceeded the level of the same period last year, the weekly production of 98,000 tons, the production profit of the main producing areas ranges from 200-650 yuan/ton, and the supply has gradually increased. During the steel recruitment period, demand continued to be released, and the demand for ferrosilicon improved for four consecutive weeks, but it is still at a historical low in the same period. Inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises has declined month-on-month since mid-February. Overall, the support strength of ferrosilicon is relatively limited, and it is expected that short-term shock operation is mainly.
