Black variety
In pieces in pieces
Thread/hot coil (RB2401/HC2401) :
Spot, thread Guangzhou 4090, Hangzhou 4010, Beijing 3870, hot coil Shanghai 3930, Tianjin 3890, Guangzhou 3960, Hangzhou thread basis 131, Beijing -9, Shanghai hot coil basis -55, Tianjin -95. Thread surface profit 22, hot coil surface profit 128. Last week, the supply and demand of building materials fell twice, to the warehouse, the supply and demand of plates fell twice, and the difference between the market feeling is large, we believe that the statistical cycle and the decline in the production of molten iron in the early period, the recent profit improvement of steel mills, the pressure of steel mills is not large, the production increase is expected in the later period, but from the raw material side, the steel mills are not willing to fill the inventory, it is expected that the long process will be more limited. The short process resumed production more this week, which is expected to be reflected in late November, focusing on the ability of demand resilience to undertake short process output. Short-term sentiment remains positive and, along the way, is expected to remain strong until the low inventory situation ends.
Manganese silicon/iron silicon:
[Market logic] manganese silicon as a black industry chain varieties in the basic poor students, high production, high inventory, their own raw materials have high price reduction space, high production viscosity, in addition to the cost has not been significantly weakened. The short-term contradiction in the liquidity is released on the disk, and the alloy factory is competing for the right to ship, and the alloy factory inventory has accumulated risk. Ningxia prompt factory cost accounting warehouse receipt cost is 6850, this price short-term upward pressure. According to manganese ore semi-carbonic acid fell to 30, chemical coke fell to 1600, Ningxia lost 200 warehouse receipt cost is near 6450, this absolute price has strong support. The short-term disk is close to the cost of warehouse receipts in Ningxia factory, and the upward space imagination is insufficient, and Ningxia warehouse receipts 7000 corresponding to the rise of 3 rounds of coke is an important pressure level in the short term. From the fundamental perspective of ferrosilicon: supply and demand have turned from tight to loose, but the overall excess is expected to be 30,000 tons per month (there is a certain replenishment expectation at the end of the fourth quarter, and there is no obvious pressure under the oversupply); The cost has room to decrease under the high price of carbon, but the weakening rate of carbon is less than expected; The inventory level has been neutral in the past three years. The factory cost at sight in Ningxia is around 7000, and the warehouse receipt price is around 7250. Today, the coal sector has stabilized and rebounded, coal chemical industry has strengthened coal upward trend, the overall trend of black is strong, ferrosilicon has a certain buying value, and the upward pressure is 7450 line in the short term.
【 Steel mill bidding 】 In November, steel has been called near 6900 manganese silicon and 7300 iron silicon.
[Market information] North manganese silicon mainstream offer 6500 yuan/ton, Tianjin Hong Kong and Macao block offer 37.5 yuan/ton, South Africa semi-carbonic acid offer 31 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia SM2312 contract basis -304 yuan/ton, Tianjin warehouse manganese silicon sales profit -46 yuan/ton; Ningxia Zhongwei iron silicon factory quotation around 6900 yuan/ton, SF2312 contract basis -284 yuan/ton, Tianjin warehouse iron silicon sales delivery profit -4 yuan/ton.
Thermal coal:
The sentiment of the main producing area is still good today, the demand has been released, the adjusted coal mine continues to increase, the adjusted coal mine is significantly more than the adjusted coal mine, and the foreign purchase price of today’s production area is increased by 20-30 yuan/ton, further boosting the sentiment of production area. The North port today transferred 1.229 million tons, 1.019 million tons, Caofeidian and Jingtang port gale closed, so the transfer is low. The inventory increased by 210,000 tons, and the inventory reached 27.098 million tons, once again refreshing the inventory high point of this round of accumulation, and breaking through 27 million tons, which is significantly higher than the level of the same period in previous years. Anchorage ships slightly recovered to 67, still a low level, and pre-arrival ships increased to 54, a normal level. Today’s ship freight continued to rise, but the increase has been significantly smaller than the previous two days, gradually returning to normal levels. Port market quotes continue to rise today, mainly driven by emotional inertia, shippers continue to move up the quotation. However, there are more shipments and few transactions, and the rise shows a certain weakness. 5500 kcal mainstream offer 950-980 yuan/ton, 5000 kcal mainstream offer 840-860 yuan/ton. In the new phase, the daily consumption continues to rise, among which the daily consumption in South China and the three eastern provinces is more obvious, and the overall daily consumption is still in the rising stage. On the terminal inventory, the overall small inventory.
