Abstract.
In terms of coking coal, coal mines in some areas that have not resumed production will resume production this week, and the supply of production areas has steadily recovered, and the raw material sentiment of coke has weakened. The integration of Inner Mongolia coal mine has attracted market attention, and it is expected that the production will be constrained during the integration period. Coke opened the fourth round of price cuts, coke companies consider profit upside down, raw coal procurement sentiment is low, and coal mine shipments are poor. Recently, Ganqi Maodu port clearance rebounded. At present, Meng5 raw coal 1480-1500 yuan/ton. Recently, there are more news of production cuts, which is expected to form constraints on the supply in the later period, and the disk is treated more.
Coking coal/Coke:
[Spot and basis] Shandong port allows a spot exchange of about 2170, warehouse receipt cost about 2353, and the main contract basis difference of -28; The price of Luliang is 1900, the cost of warehouse receipt is 2278, and the basis difference with the main contract is -103; Shanxi medium sulfur main coke price 2100, warehouse receipt price 2000, and the main contract basis difference +209, Mongolia 5# raw coal port price 1490, warehouse receipt price 1822, and the main contract basis difference +30. The low volatile price of Australian coal is 328 US dollars, the warehouse receipt price is 2288, and the difference with the main contract basis is +496.
[Fundamentals] The coke market has been temporarily stable after four rounds of improvement and decline, and the cumulative downward range is 400-440 yuan/ton, the loss of coke enterprises has increased and the shipment is difficult, and the coke supply has further intensified. With the reduction of coke prices, downstream procurement enthusiasm is enhanced. The downstream steel mills are mostly at high inventory levels, the pressure on the finished material inventory is relatively large and the demand recovery is unclear, and the downstream steel mill profits are repaired, but the recovery rate is slow.
In terms of coking coal, coal mines in some areas that have not resumed production will resume production this week, and the supply of production areas has steadily recovered, and the raw material sentiment of coke has weakened. The integration of Inner Mongolia coal mine has attracted market attention, and it is expected that the production will be constrained during the integration period. Coke opened the fourth round of price cuts, coke companies consider profit upside down, raw coal procurement sentiment is low, and coal mine shipments are poor. Recently, Ganqi Maodu port clearance rebounded. At present, Meng5 raw coal 1480-1500 yuan/ton. Recently, there are more news of production cuts, which is expected to form constraints on the supply in the later period, and the disk is treated more.
Strategy suggestion: short-term dips do long.
Manganese silicon/iron silicon:
[Market logic] According to seasonal observation, after the Spring Festival, steel mills tend to go to the warehouse, although the crude steel production is in the resumption of production, but the short-term neutral demand for alloy is mainly weak. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in oversupply, inventory is at a seasonal high, there is no significant increase in demand, although the cost has a certain short-term support for deep fall space is not large, but the space above the alloy is under pressure, and the short-term is still dominated by inter-cell fluctuations.
[Steel mill bidding] In February, steel has been called manganese silicon 6380-6400, iron silicon 6800-6900.
[Market information] Northern manganese silicon mainstream offer 6050 yuan/ton, Tianjin Hong Kong and Macao block offer 36.5 yuan/ton, South Africa semi-carbonic acid transaction price 34.5 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia SM2405 contract basis -318 yuan/ton, Tianjin warehouse manganese silicon sales profit -32 yuan/ton; Ningxia Zhongwei iron silicon factory quotation around 6350 yuan/ton, SF2405 contract basis -318 yuan/ton, Tianjin warehouse iron silicon sales delivery profit 38 yuan/ton.
Steel Mine:
Steel supply and demand continue to be weak, steel mills reduce losses but do not rush to resume production, with the start of demand next week, it is expected that there are two weeks of inventory cycle, inventory pressure will gradually ease. Superimposed macro risk aversion, continue to fall power is insufficient, but the rebound space also depends on the strength of terminal demand, currently in the 3700-3900 range. In terms of ore, the recovery of hot metal is slow, but the decline in shipments gives some marginal support, and the reduction of less than 120 US dollars will continue to be concerned in the later stage. At present, the price has strong support in the 850-830 range.
