【 Thread & Hot coil 】
During the festival, peripheral commodities were mixed, iron ore swaps rose slightly, and steel spot was mainly stable. Affected by the approaching holiday and off-season, the thread table needs to fall, the production continues to rise, the inventory is slowing down, and the hot roll inventory is still high. With the rapid rebound of raw materials, and the downstream capacity to undertake limited, ton steel profits fall to inhibit the enthusiasm of steel mills to resume production, positive feedback expectations have cooled. From the downstream demand point of view, the sharp decline in real estate is still the main drag, the manufacturing and export performance is relatively good, April PMI was 50.4, the fiscal force is expected to support infrastructure. The short-term dilemma of the disk, the pattern of regional volatility or continuation, and the favorable landing of real estate policies.
【 Iron ore 】
Overseas swaps for iron ore rose slightly during the May Day holiday. Supply-side overseas shipments returned to a high level and are expected to continue a slow seasonal recovery in the future. The production of molten iron at the demand end continues to increase, and after the festival, it is concerned whether the terminal demand can continue to show a certain toughness, which will determine the final recovery height of molten iron. First-tier cities continue to optimize the real estate policy, overseas Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have increased, and market sentiment is expected to warm. On the whole, the fundamentals of iron ore are loose, and the pressure of port inventory is relatively large, but in the case of hot metal still resuming production and the continuous optimization of real estate policies, iron ore prices have short-term support, and we expect that the trend of iron ore will be dominated by high shocks.
【 Coke 】
Holiday coke spot market is stable, keep rising after the fourth round of prices. At the end of coke demand, steelmaking profits are narrowed but still exist, hot metal is still expected to slightly increase production, and steel mills still have some replenishment demands. At the coke supply end, coking profits have expanded, production has risen from the low level, basically matching with demand, and the accumulation pressure at the production end has not yet appeared. On the whole, coke supply and demand are slightly tight, but considering that the 05 contract will bring a surge in staged supply after delivery, so the spot is stable for the time being, and futures are mainly shaken and consolidated.
【 Coking coal 】
The holiday spot of coking coal was gradually driven by the downstream coking increase, and the market rose slightly in stability. Both hot metal and coke production have continued to rise, and the coking coal inventory in the early stage of the superposition terminal is low, so the recent coking coal demand side has a strong demand support. At the supply end of coking coal, domestic coal mines also have a small continuous production increase, but the overall margin is not large, and the boost of continuous sales continues to bring further production increases. At the import end, the customs clearance of Mengzhi coal decreased slightly, and the inventory of the warehouse began to gradually digest; Australian coal prices have risen steadily, several ships imported, on the whole, coking coal supply is still structurally tight, but also need to be wary of 05 delivery brought about by the surge in staged supply, temporarily looking at the shock consolidation.
【 manganese silicon 】
The spot price of manganese ore port continues to rise rapidly, and the market is looking forward to Comilog’s next quotation for China’s long-term manganese ore. Silicon manganese weekly production increased slightly, hot metal production rose for four consecutive weeks, silicon manganese market inventory is still increasing. Chemical coke followed coke rise; Affected by South32’s short-term inability to resume exports, the spot quotation of port manganese ore rose rapidly; The Gabon train derailment has been repaired and the impact is expected to be minimal. The price of silicon manganese plate is still bullish, the first trading day after the holiday may further expand the plate volatility, it is recommended to pay attention to control positions.
【 ferrosilicon 】
The price follows the silicon manganese upward weakness. The output of hot metal increased slightly, the export volume of ferrosilicon maintained a high position, the supply and demand margin improved, the price of carbon orchid increased, and the cost increased. Weekly production fell to a low level and then rebounded, and maintaining the current level of production can gradually reduce the market inventory, driven by profits, we judge that a small recovery on the supply side is normal. The upward rebound in prices reflects the market’s recognition of the decline in inventories, but the further rebound pressure is larger mainly because the speed and magnitude of inventory removal do not match. It is recommended that ferrosilicon go short on a high, short-term operation.
