【 Holiday Review 】
During the Spring Festival, the scrap market is basically closed, the blast furnace steel mill is more normal production, the consumption of scrap steel inventory is mainly, the independent arc furnace steel mill is mostly shut down for a holiday, and the individual steel mill is shut down without stopping, but the basic goods are few. Freight yards are also at a standstill. After the holiday, steel mills with insufficient inventory began to pull up slightly to receive goods, but the market has not yet recovered, and most are still based on stable prices.
The scrap steel market was basically closed during the Spring Festival, and began to resume production on the fourth day of the first month. The scrap steel price rose slightly after the festival. As of February 19, the scrap steel price index of Mysteel was 3039.4 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from before the festival; The average price of scrap in 45 mainstream cities was 2629.2 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan/ton from before the festival.
1. The price difference between screw waste and board waste increased slightly
As of February 19, the price difference between hot rolled and scrap steel was 1045.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.5 yuan/ton compared with before the festival, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel was 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton compared with before the festival, and the difference between plate waste and screw waste had a small increase. Holiday scrap prices relatively stable operation, hot rolled and thread in the billet rose 60 yuan/ton after a small increase, the price spread widened.
2, iron scrap price difference narrowed slightly but still has high cost performance
As of February 19, the price difference between scrap steel and molten iron in Jiangsu was inverted 218 yuan/ton, 38 yuan/ton less than before the festival, and 184 yuan/ton less than the same period last year, and the price difference between scrap steel and molten iron continued to shrink. The price of hot metal at the cost end has fallen, and the price difference between scrap and steel has narrowed, but scrap steel still has a very high cost-effective advantage, and the willingness of steel mills to prioritize the use of scrap steel remains unchanged. In addition, the scrap market trading after the holiday is still in a slow recovery, and it is expected that the price will rise slightly in the later period, and the price spread will fluctuate.
[Fundamental situation] The market scrap supply is insufficient steel mill demand is increasing
1, the supply side: the market is in a rapid recovery in the short-term scrap supply will show a significant rebound
As of February 15, Mysteel investigated the total amount of scrap steel arriving from 300 steel mills on a daily basis of 251,500 tons, a decrease of 121,100 tons, a decrease of 32.51%; Month-on-month reduction of 365,300 tons, down 59.23%; A year-on-year decrease of 296,700 tons, down 54.12%.
After the scrap base generally in the sixth to fifteenth day of the first month to resume work, but the actual production and waste end and logistics transportation to resume work relatively late, the current vehicle and ship distribution capacity is weak, so the scrap base to receive goods, processing, delivery volume is low, the decline is significant. As the Lantern Festival approaches, the arrival of steel scrap from steel mills will rebound quickly.
2, demand: long process steel mill normal production of short process steel scrap demand increased
As of February 14, Mysteel investigated 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country, with an average operating rate of 6.67%, down 5.71% from before the festival, down 61.37% month-on-month, down 54.30% year on year; Capacity utilization rate was 2.71%, down 4.46% from before the festival, down 55.71% month-on-month, down 45.63% year on year.
Long process steel mills maintain normal production rhythm during the holiday, the daily consumption of scrap steel after the holiday is relatively stable, and short process steel mills are expected to resume work and production before and after the Lantern Festival, when the daily consumption will return to the previous year’s level, and the demand for scrap steel will increase significantly.
3, inventory: a small number of steel mills need to replenish the inventory of most steel mills is still acceptable
As of February 18, the total scrap inventory of 300 steel mills of my Iron and Steel was 628.56 tons, 829,100 tons less than before the festival, a decrease of 11.65%; Month-on-month decrease of 539,200 tons, down 7.90%; An increase of 80,400 tons, or 12.14%, year-on-year. The scrap inventory of 584 access enterprises was 962,300 tons, which was 29,100 tons less than before the festival, a decrease of 2.93%.
The normal production of long process steel mills, mainly consume scrap steel inventory during the holiday, and there are different degrees of replenishment demand after the holiday, but it should also be noted that many steel mills have overcompleted the winter storage plan before the holiday, so the inventory is still sufficient after the holiday; The short process steel mills generally stopped production in 2024 holiday, and some scrap steel stopped production and stopped collecting, so the inventory increased slightly. Therefore, on the whole, steel mills have replenishment demand for scrap steel, but the estimated range is limited, and a small number of steel mills are in urgent need of replenishment.
[The trend of scrap steel in the past two days is expected] The price of scrap steel in the rapid resumption of the market or a slight rise
This week, the market began to gradually recover, although electric arc furnace steel mills have not resumed production, but most steel mills have begun to receive goods, and blast furnace steel scrap actively replenishment, scrap demand has a certain support. From the market point of view, this week, the freight yard concentrated to start, but most personnel have not yet returned to work, scrap processing progress is slow, less circulating resources, and access to the inventory of enterprises hit a new low level, the overall supply of scrap is tight. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term national scrap price will mainly rise slightly.
