【 Thread & Hot coil 】
Friday night steel prices were weak and fell slightly. With the arrival of high temperature and rainy weather, the demand is under pressure, the recent thread table needs to be slightly weaker than expected, the warehouse has slowed down, and the hot roll inventory is still high. Molten iron continues to rise, the downstream capacity to undertake insufficient, ton steel profits continue to decline, the enthusiasm of steel mills to resume production has been inhibited, and the positive feedback is expected to cool down. At present, the real estate is still weak, April social finance data is lower than expected, ppi continues to hover at a low level, and the market is still worried about the demand outlook, focusing on whether the policy stimulus is increased. The board is still under pressure in the short term, and the overall partial range is mainly focused on demand resilience and macro sentiment changes.
【 Iron ore 】
Iron ore last week, the pan surface hit high and fell, the basis fluctuated at a low level. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments remain high, domestic shipments to Hong Kong have rebounded, and Hong Kong stocks have been reduced, but the pressure is still large. On the demand side, molten iron continues to increase, but subject to the contraction of steel mill profits and the weak terminal capacity, it is expected that the resumption of production has entered the second half of the process, and there is little room for iron ore demand to continue to improve. The recent real estate policy has been more favorable, but the growth of financial data in April has slowed down, and market expectations have fluctuated. On the whole, the fundamentals of iron ore are loose, and the support for the plate for the resumption of hot metal production has also begun to weaken, and we expect that the trend of iron ore will be dominated by shocks.
【 Coke 】
The fifth round of coke spot increase has not yet fully landed, and the sentiment of the disk continues to weaken and fall. At the end of coke demand, the rapid compression of steelmaking profit is nearly zero, and the rapid production of hot metal has been achieved, and the space for further production is narrowed. On the supply side, the coking profit was quickly repaired, and the production was also rapidly rising from the low level, basically matching the demand, and the inventory at the production end was still being removed but gradually expected to be under pressure. Overall, coke supply and demand static look balanced, but considering the terminal demand capacity is more limited, futures follow the steel price sentiment fell, return to the discount pattern, is expected to continue to shock consolidation.
【 Coking coal 】
Coking coal spot market sentiment continued to cool down, and the disk premium further narrowed. Both hot metal and coke production have continued to rise rapidly, and the coking coal inventory in the early stage of the superposition terminal is low, so the static coking coal demand side has a strong demand support. At the supply end of coking coal, domestic coal mines continue to increase production, but there are also new coking coal mine accidents, and further expansion of production space remains to be seen. At the import end, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is maintained at a high level of more than 1,000 carloads, and the warehouse inventory at the gate has a certain digestion; The price of Australian coal is stable and small, and there are sporadic imports. Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal are slightly tight, the price is still premium, and the valuation is still at risk of falling combined with the sentiment of steel prices.
【 manganese silicon 】
Manganese ore price expectations dominate the disk, with the overall trend of black offset. Silicon manganese weekly production increased slightly, hot metal production rose for five consecutive weeks, silicon manganese market inventory is still increasing. Affected by the short-term inability of South32 to resume exports, the Gabon manganese ore traded in India rose to $7.55 / ton, plus the freight to China will go to more than $8 / ton. Mainly focused on manganese ore port inventory and news about South32. We judge that the silicon manganese price is still relatively strong in the near future. In the short term, it is recommended to buy the manganese ore call option in the over-the-counter option operation, and it is not recommended to sell the hedge operation in the silicon manganese plate in the short term.
【 ferrosilicon 】
The price is affected by the black overall downward. The output of molten iron continues to rise, the export volume of ferrosilicon maintains a high position, the supply and demand margin improves, the price of carbon has risen, and the cost has risen. Weekly production fell to a low position after a rebound, while maintaining the current production level can gradually reduce the market inventory, driven by profits, we judge that the small recovery of the supply side is verified by the weekly data, and the weekly production of ferrosilicon increased from the previous month. The upward rebound in prices reflects the market’s recognition of the decline in inventories, but the further rebound pressure is larger mainly because the speed and magnitude of inventory removal do not match. It is still recommended that ferrosilicon on the high short, short-term operation.
