1. Fundamental analysis
1.On November 13, the manganese silicon disk rose, manganese silicon 2402 closed down 0.38%, closing price of 6750, down 26 from the previous day’s close. Ferrosilicon 2402 closed down 0.36% at 7140, down 26 from the previous day’s close.
2.On November 13, the national manganese silicon warehouse receipt 8550 lots, an increase of 61 lots from the previous trading day. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipt 16941 lots, an increase of 1234 lots from the previous trading day.
3. My iron and steel network news: The sample inventory of 63 independent manganese silicon enterprises in the country is 189,130 tons, which is 10,200 tons lower than the previous month. The sample inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6400 tons, down 10.05% from the previous period.
2. Market analysis
On the demand side, hot metal production is expected to decrease by 20,000 to 30,000 tons this week, but still remain above 235. He Steel this month to carry out the tender, manganese silicon production of 12,900 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous month, iron silicon 1863 tons, a decrease of 1,447 tons from the previous month, both demand is much lower than expected. On the supply side, the manganese-silicon operating rate fell to its lowest level since March. The operating rate and production of ferrosilicon last week were also slightly loosened, but still at a high level. In general, the supply pressure of manganese silicon is less than that of iron silicon.
From the cost side, the spot price of coal coke began to rise with the sharp cooling in winter, and the chemical coke increased significantly, and the chemical coke in Ningxia region increased two rounds of 100/ ton this week. Electricity charges in Shaanxi are expected to be further reduced, and electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia also fluctuate slightly. The strength of carbon gives good news to the cost side of silicon.
In general, silicon by the black positive impact gradually disappeared, the mainstream steel mill bidding volume has declined significantly on silicon sentiment, but the strong cost side is still a strong support. Short-term judgment is more strong, it is recommended to do more short-term callback, timely drop bag for safety.
