Strong soda pushing strong glass?
So can strong iron ore and strong coke push strong threads and strong hot coils?
Same logic, same logic.
Gold has reached new highs, crude oil has continued to fall, a small part of the bulk commodities have been rising (soda ash, iron ore), most of them have been falling (lithium carbonate), to find some logic is a bit far-fetched, but basically according to the use of financial capital information and capital flow to disrupt industrial capital production costs for profit, the use of the non-market economy logic of supply and demand (do not stop production and do not lay off people at a loss).
The global economic recession in 2024 cannot be avoided, the most likely development line is that recession and currency oversupply occur at the same time, the global demand decline leads to the economic crisis, the United States has to cut interest rates, the industry consolidation, when the pressure is gone, the pipeline is broken.
Next week industry situation analysis and speculation: futures strong constant strong, wild dragon chaos dance, relegated fairy temporarily avoid.
1. The average sales data of building materials last week declined significantly, the sales of hot rolls were good, the social inventory declined, the hot metal declined slightly last week, but the output of the electric furnace plant increased, the situation of the plant library was focused on, and the temperature affected the construction site was focused on.
2. Last week, I said the logic of the increase in scrap, that is, the electric furnace plant is resuming production, and some plants in East China have been producing at full capacity for 24 hours due to the price advantage of scrap. However, it is true that the number of long-process steel mills scheduled to be overhauled in December has increased, reducing the demand for scrap. Therefore, the scrap price is afraid that the overall balance of the premise, the probability of decline is increasing.
3. Coke last week the second round of ups and downs, short-term look at the market is still strong operation, generally expected 3-4 rounds of rises, the third round of rises last week has been partially appeared, next week can quickly land will determine the position of this round of rises, short-term still maintain bullish thinking, but if so, steel costs will continue to increase.
4. Pig iron began to rise last week by the impact of scrap rising, iron plant limited increase, but the impact of scrap rising weakness, with the impact of material price rises, iron plant losses will increase. Overall, under the influence of manufacturing exports, the foundry situation is not good, it is difficult to improve in the last two months of this year, maintain weak operation, focus on the procurement of large steel mills, and some iron plant capital problems also need attention. It is worth noting that high-quality cast iron and ductile iron, affected by the shutdown of most iron plants, have come out of the independent market, and have been affected by the price of scrap steel and refined steel. (It breaks the traditional price squeeze of 100-150.)
5. Iron ore next week is the key point, and all the focus of the black department is in iron ore, taking into account the reality of the hair brother began to shout last week and the meeting, it is expected that the difficulty of iron ore to break through 1000 is relatively large, and the impact of restricted trading, the difficulty of falling is also very large, but according to the steel mill reaction, the current iron ore plant inventory is low, and it will maintain high volatility in the short term. Wait for the occurrence of accumulated material and the decrease of iron water volume in steel mill maintenance.
Personally, I believe that the long-term view is the belief in 5% growth and the certainty of currency depreciation, but the short-term market is cruel and realistic, which needs to take into account the continuous lack of demand, and the confidence in the economic recovery period needs to be boosted and repeatedly confirmed. At present, the downward probability of the market is still high, as more and more steel mills and institutions participate in futures hedging. The future will be volatile and increasingly professional. The government’s task of economic growth is no longer a rigid indicator, the force has declined, and the industrial focus has shifted. Then the steel industry had better expect the worst and not be blindly optimistic. The fight between financial capital will become more and more fierce until no one says that futures bottom fishing, there is no money bottom fishing. The fight between industrial capital will also be intense, and the merger and reorganization between steel companies and bankruptcy exit will come. Of course, these cruel things are the right and hard things to do. The Malthusian trap (disaster) that manufacturing faces is what it must experience at the end of the great cycle. — Iron and Steel Daxin
Recession and depression, turmoil and war, economic crisis and financial crisis are just around the corner. I ask you to follow the general direction of the country, work hard and improve strategic confidence. Come on, we will surely overcome the temporary difficulties and move towards a better tomorrow.
There are a large number of people in China, will be in the real estate downturn in the big cycle, superimposed industrialization and urbanization stagnation of the big cycle, because the household leverage is too high, through a long difficult years.
