In November, silicon metal fell first and then stabilized, according to the commodity market analysis system, as of November 29, 2023, the domestic 441# silicon metal market reference price 15180 yuan/ton, down 1.94% from the beginning of the month, down 25.04% from the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, the Southwest limited power production news, but the cancellation of the receipt of goods gradually into the spot warehouse has not been released, the overall supply change to maintain a stable flow of goods circulation is relatively abundant, the superimposed polysilicon price downward, the price of metal silicon is serious, the supply and demand resonance, metal silicon pressure downward. In the middle and late months, the price of silicon metal has stabilized, the price in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and in the southwest region, under the background of the electricity price situation in the dry season, the manufacturers have obvious willingness to support the price, and the upstream and downstream deadlock game, and the price remains stable.
The main production areas in the southwest have entered the flat and dry period, on the current production scale, the production reduction in the southwest in November did not exceed expectations, in the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that production will be lower than the previous month. The new production of Northwest Dachang can be slowly released, superimposed warehouse receipts are written off, and the overall market supply is still too much in December.
Sichuan and Yunnan electricity prices have been increased in November, and it is expected that there is still some room for increase in December, and the bottom of the cost will be further moved up. The ongoing conflict along the Myanmar border led to a rise in chip prices, but the impact was partly offset by a slowdown in purchases in the southwest. Xinjiang silica coal slightly increased, due to the recent double focus strong superimposed mine supervision supply contraction, the price rose at the end of the month.
In November, the price of polysilicon fell further, and the mainstream range of the current model of single-crystal dense material with a solar level slipped to 68,000-70,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon new production capacity is still continuing to put in, but the market is limited, there is a stock demand for metal silicon but the price is serious.
Silicone DMC market weak running, November 29, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference at 14,320 yuan/ton. Silicone DMC downstream demand is limited, the factory order volume performance is general, the wait-and-see mood is strong, some downstream factories decline to start, the demand for metal silicon has a further shrinking trend.
The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was unchanged at 50.1%, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was unchanged at 51.6%. The procurement of recycled aluminum alloy raw materials has been blocked, and downstream orders have weakened, and the start of construction has been lowered to maintain the just-needed procurement.
According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in October 43,600 tons, a decrease of 15.01% from the previous month, an increase of 12.95%, compared with September exports have a significant decline, mainly due to weak overseas demand.
Future market forecast：
Overall, the current production cut in the southwest has not exceeded expectations, the price of metal silicon has not fluctuated much for more than half a month, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the silicon price is difficult to break through. If the southwest costs rise in December and part of the raw material inventory is consumed, silicon prices are expected to recover. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the production reduction in the southwest and downstream demand changes, and it is expected that the short-term metal silicon price will remain stable.
