Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are listed in the futures varieties of Zhengshang Exchange, Zhengshang Exchange opened the arbitrage order of these two varieties, from the price correlation point of view, from the beginning of 2020, the correlation coefficient of double silicon disk is as high as 0.93. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the price difference between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon.
First, the origin of raw materials is highly overlapping. Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly concentrated in the northwest and other thermal power resources rich and southwest and other hydropower resources rich areas, from the main production areas, ferrosilicon and silicon manganese main production areas overlapping in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, the total production of ferrosilicon accounted for about 54.18% of the country, the total production of silicon manganese accounted for about 64.75% of the country.
Second, the downstream demand is highly overlapping. Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly used as two indispensable materials in the process of steelmaking. Ferrosilicon is mainly used as a reducing agent in the steelmaking process, and about 55% of the downstream demand belongs to the steel mill end, while manganese silicon is mainly used as an additive for manganese in the steelmaking process, and about 98% of the downstream demand belongs to the steel mill end.
Third, the cost is highly dominant price. Because the concentration of ferroalloy enterprises is low, and the general requirements for profit are not high, so the bargaining power is weak. If there is no perturbation of other factors such as policies, enterprises will quickly take measures to stop production in the case of losses, and will quickly increase production when profits are good, and profits have a good conductivity to enterprise output. As a result, the profit of ferroalloy enterprises is usually not too high. Therefore, in most of the time, the price of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon is usually close to the cost of operation, and the cost of ferroalloy has a more critical impact on the price.
Fourth, the price difference is limited. In theory, because the manganese silicon alloy has the performance of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, there is a possibility of substitution between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon. Although, in practice, because the two varieties account for the cost of steel is small, and there is rarely a large divergence in price between several, iron and steel enterprises will not frequently change the alloy ratio, so the substitution effect is not obvious. However, if the price deviates for a long time or a large amount, the function of mutual substitution will play a better role in correcting the deviation, which also means that the price of the two varieties will not deviate too much for too long without policy disturbance.
Five, silicon Fe-Mn silicon price difference characteristics
1. Long-term price difference. At present, the price of ferrosilicon is higher than that of manganese silicon, and the price difference between the two is 170 yuan; However, from a long-term perspective, the price of ferrosilicon is lower than that of manganese silicon, and the average price difference since 2014 is -532 yuan.
2. Price difference of processing profit. Since the process of the two varieties is similar, the cost composition is relatively simple, therefore, according to the characteristics of the production process, the cost calculation formula is simplified and summarized:
Cost of ferrosilicon =[1.8 tons of silica +8000 KWH +1 ton of carbon +0.2 tons of pellets]*1.13 (VAT) +50 (depreciation) +200 (other);
Manganese silicon cost =[2 tons manganese ore +0.75 tons manganese rich slag +0.26 tons silica +0.55 tons coke +4000 degrees of electricity]*1.13 (VAT) +50 (depreciation) +200 (other)
Therefore, the cost spread = the cost of ferrosilicon – the cost of manganese silicon =[1.54 tons of silica +4000 degrees of electricity +1 tons of carbon +0.2 tons of pellets]*1.13 (VAT) -[2 tons of manganese ore +0.75 tons of manganese rich slag +0.55 tons of coke]*1.13 (VAT). The specific data such as ore price, electricity price and auxiliary materials are substituted, and the following table is obtained (for details, see EXCEL- ferromanganese silicon) :
Conclusion: First, the current processing profit spread is 576 yuan, which is higher than the average spread of 250 yuan since 2014; Second, in the short term, the processing profit spread is already at a low level. On the whole, there is no significant abnormality in the price difference of processing profit.
3, excluding the price difference of raw materials. From the cost formula of the two varieties, it may be seen that the price difference mainly depends on two factors: electricity price and other raw material costs. There are some differences in the cost composition of manganese silicon and iron silicon. Among them, the main cost of manganese silicon is the cost of manganese ore, accounting for about 55%, while the main cost of ferrosilicon is the cost of electricity, accounting for about 50%, and the cost of raw materials is relatively small. Due to the small fluctuation of the cost of electricity, under normal circumstances, the price of manganese ore fluctuates greatly, resulting in the cost volatility of manganese silicon is much higher than that of iron silicon. Therefore, the factor analysis method can be applied to analyze and judge the price difference of raw material cost excluding electricity price first, and then further analyze the price difference of two varieties. The production of a ton of ferrosilicon to 8000 KWH of electricity, and the production of a ton of manganese silicon to 2000 KWH of electricity, the exact proportional coefficient of 2, therefore, can be analyzed according to the cost of manganese silicon raw material price difference = manganese silicon cost *2- manganese silicon cost *1:
Conclusion: First, without considering the price of electricity, the processing profit obtained by the cost of manganese silicon *2- the cost of ferrosilicon *1 has shrunk from 7,000 points to 4,000 points in the past two or three years, which proves that ferroalloy production enterprises are developing towards the integration of the cycle industry chain to reduce consumption and increase efficiency. In recent years, the concentration of ferroalloy industry has been further improved; Second, statically, the processing profit obtained by the current manganese silicon cost * 2-manganese silicon cost *1 is -354, which is at a low level compared with the average processing profit 1368 obtained by the cost of manganese silicon * 2-iron silicon cost *1, indicating that the raw materials for the production of manganese silicon are relatively cheap.
